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China’s sow herd contracts


China’s sow herd stood at 40.36 million head at the end of August, down 4.8% from a year earlier, according to the ag ministry. The sow herd was modestly smaller than the 40.41 million head at the end of July.

Several factors appear to be driving this contraction in China’s sow herd:

• Low prices: Swine and pork prices have been low, causing losses for producers and leading to herd liquidation.

• Disease issues: Lingering animal diseases, including African swine fever (ASF), have continued to affect the sector, particularly in North China.

• Market oversupply: The aggressive expansion of China’s swine herd in 2020-2021 led to production exceeding market demand.

• Producer exits: More small- and medium-sized producers have exited the market due to financial challenges and difficulty obtaining loans.

The contraction in the sow herd is part of larger shifts in China’s pork industry:

• Shift to large-scale production: The share of large-scale swine producers versus small- to mid-sized producers is growing significantly.

• Improved efficiency: With fewer inefficient sows, the number of piglets weaned per sow per year has improved.

• Production forecast: Despite the sow herd decline, China is still expected to produce 695 million head of swine in 2024, though this represents a 3% year-on-year decline.

Pipeline: www.thepigsite.com

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