The European Commission’s latest short-term outlook on agricultural markets anticipates a slight decrease in EU pork production, with a 0.5% drop in 2024 and a 0.2% decrease in 2025. African Swine Fever remains a significant risk. EU per capita pork consumption is expected to stabilize at 30.9 kg in 2025, while high EU pigmeat prices are hindering global export competitiveness.
The EU agricultural sector shows signs of stabilizing, with input costs decreasing and food inflation moderating. However, uncertainties linked to weather, geopolitical conflicts, and animal diseases persist. For 2024, EU pork production is forecasted at 20.77 million tonnes, a slight decrease year-on-year, although Poland and Hungary saw production increases. Consumption remains stable but will decline by 0.4% by the end of 2024.
Exports are predicted to reach 2.93 million tonnes in 2024, down 2.5% from 2023, with strong competition from Brazil and the US affecting sales in high-value markets like Japan and Australia. Importantly, there has been a significant drop in exports to China and the UK, while markets like South Korea and Vietnam saw gains. EU pork imports increased slightly in 2024, driven by higher imports from Chile, but could decline by 2% in 2025 due to lower UK demand.
Pipeline: www.pigprogress.net
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