Swine production is expected to decline in 2025 due to weak demand and a smaller inventory of hogs for slaughter.
In 2024, lower sow inventories are expected to lead to a decline in the number of piglets growing into hogs for consumption. However, pork production in the second half of 2025 will increase as sow inventories recover, driven by rising pig prices. Pig producers and large companies are better prepared to manage African Swine Fever (ASF), which has had limited impact on swine production despite sporadic outbreaks.
Pork consumption in 2025 is predicted to decrease due to changes in diets, with consumers favoring other animal proteins like beef, poultry, and seafood, perceived as healthier. Although overall meat consumption in China has risen by 20% over the past 14 years, pork’s share of total consumption is expected to continue declining through 2025.
Pork imports are projected to remain stable in 2025, with frozen pork prices generally lower than domestic pork. Weaker domestic demand will likely lead to reduced consumption of local pork, while competitively priced frozen imports may be directed into strategic reserves. Major pork suppliers to China include Spain, Brazil, Denmark, the Netherlands, Canada, and the United States.
Pork exports are expected to grow slightly year-on-year by 2025, primarily to mature markets like Hong Kong and Japan. In 2024, exports rose marginally, and demand for prepared and frozen pork to Hong Kong is forecasted to continue, potentially met by live pigs for profitability.
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